Six months ago, at the height of the City scepticism, one quarter of all the company's shares were being used in "short" trades, an unheard of proportion for a large quoted company. One hedge fund manager complained at the time that the trade had become so popular that it was no longer worth doing - the cost of borrowing Carillion shares, normally the necessary precursor to placing a short trade, had become prohibitive. What did the short-sellers see that the company's board could not? Here are four of the tell-tale signs that (with hindsight) gave hedge funds and others sufficient confidence to bet that the company's shares would fall. Carillion reported average margins of about 4%, twice the normal going rate for construction companies. While some of this could be explained by the company's mix of business, with potentially lucrative service contracts and high-margin work in the Middle East, it seemed suspiciously high to some investors. And high-margin work is good, as long as you actually receive payment. Industry insiders say Carillion was owed about £400m from Middle East contracts when it went under. Construction industry veterans know that when main contractors come under pressure, their first port of call is making subcontractors wait for their money. Late payment is endemic in construction, but Carillion was making its suppliers wait 120 days. There was other evidence too; stories in the trade press about the woes of angry subcontractors, which enough to give keen-eyed hedge funds reason to think that cash was tight at Carillion.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42744949
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